Last week I marked two lines and watched them get tested four times. SPY and QQQ pulled back roughly 2-3% off the August 13 high, losing four of five sessions. By Thursday’s close, SPY sat at $762.60, QQQ at $710.93. That’s the last close I have in hand. I don’t know where Friday landed, and I’m not going to guess.
What I do know is that this coming week gives the market more reasons to move than it’s had in a month. Not more predictions from me — more reasons for price to either respect the lines I drew off last week’s pullback, or break them. I spent the weekend doing the same thing I do every weekend: marking where price stopped, where it turned, where it sat still for a while before deciding. Nothing fancier than that.
The pullback itself wasn’t dramatic. Four red days out of five isn’t a crash, it’s a normal cooling-off after a run to new highs on August 13. But it left behind real levels — places where sellers showed up and places where buyers finally stepped back in. Those are the lines that matter to me this week, not the calendar dates themselves.
What’s actually on the calendar
Monday brings the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July. Tuesday adds the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and the House Price Index for June. Both are the kind of data that moves through the tape without leaving a mark. I note them. I don’t trade around them.
Wednesday is different. Durable goods for July, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, and PCE inflation data for July all land the same morning. Thursday, weekly jobless claims come out, and the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium opens — it runs through Friday into Saturday. Friday also brings the preliminary annual revision to Non-Farm Payrolls.
Two of those deserve more of my attention than the rest. Not because I have a view on what they’ll say. Because of what they are.
Why PCE gets more weight than the rest
PCE is the inflation gauge the Fed itself watches most closely when it sets policy. Not CPI, not the headlines you see aggregated everywhere else. When that number prints Wednesday, it doesn’t just inform commentary — it feeds directly into how the market prices the next rate move. That’s the difference between data that gets discussed and data that gets traded.
I’m not going to tell you what the number will show. I don’t have a forecast for it and neither does anyone posting with confidence about it before Wednesday morning. What I have is a chart with lines on it, and a plan for what I do when price reaches one of those lines regardless of the headline.
Why Jackson Hole carries more weight than a normal conference
Jackson Hole starts Thursday. It’s a symposium, not a data release — a room full of central bankers and a stage where the Fed chair typically speaks. Historically, those remarks have moved markets more than the calendar suggests they should for something with no scheduled number attached to it. A sentence about the path of policy can do more to price than an entire week of routine indicators.
I’m not speculating about what gets said this year. I’ve watched enough of these to know that the speech itself is unpredictable and that guessing it ahead of time is a losing habit dressed up as preparation. What isn’t unpredictable is that price will react to something, and my lines will still be sitting where I drew them regardless of the topic sentence.
Friday’s revision, and why it’s easy to overlook
The preliminary annual revision to Non-Farm Payrolls lands Friday, while Jackson Hole is still running. Revisions like this rewrite the picture of the labor market that’s already been priced in for months — sometimes quietly, sometimes not. Combined with a symposium still in session, Friday could be the loudest day of a loud week, or it could pass without much notice. I don’t know which, and I’m not going to pretend I do.
The plan hasn’t changed
Blank chart. Lines from where price stopped last week. That’s it. Every one of these five days is a chance for price to come back to a level and either hold it or run through it. My job isn’t to guess which happens before it happens. My job is to have the line already drawn when it gets there.
The mistake I made for years was trying to have an opinion on the number before the number existed. I’d read the calendar, form a thesis, and then defend that thesis against whatever the chart actually did. It cost me more than any single week of trading was worth. Now I just wait for price to arrive at a level I already trusted before the headline existed, and I let the level tell me something instead of the other way around.
That doesn’t mean I ignore the calendar. I know exactly which mornings this week carry real weight and which ones I can treat like background noise. It means I don’t let the calendar write my trade for me in advance. The line was drawn Sunday night. Wednesday’s number, Thursday’s speech, and Friday’s revision only get a vote on whether price reaches that line — not on whether the line itself is right.
Five sessions. Five chances for the market to show me whether last week’s pullback was the start of something bigger or just a pause before another leg higher. I’m not going to pretend I know which one it is before it happens. Nobody honest does.
PCE on Wednesday. Jackson Hole starting Thursday. A revision on Friday that could rewrite the labor story or slide by unnoticed. I don’t need to know which one moves the market most. I just need my lines drawn before any of them print.
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